Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 373 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 14:49 → SFO 22:51 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	12%	5%	0.9%	90%
UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	13%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:36	SFO 17:52	13%	5%	0.8%	92%
AS 834 Alaska	HNL 00:00	SFO 07:56	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:05	SFO 22:18	19%	8%	0.8%	79%
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 13:31	SFO 21:32	25%	7%	0.8%	83%
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:49	SFO 22:51	37%	11%	1.2%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:29AS 1128	1h 11m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	7h 20m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON