Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:59, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1992 Southwest	HNL 08:15	SJC 16:17	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 839 Alaska	HNL 11:50	SJC 20:04	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	9h 32m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:10AS 1056	3h 13m Kahului	OGG 13:23 → SJC 21:25AS 954	9h 09m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 17:44 → SJC 19:56AS 1303	9h 58m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	51m Seattle	SEA 20:46 → SJC 22:55AS 403	8h 52m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON