tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 357 Delta Flight history → HNL 19:49 SLC 05:54 13% 5% 0.9% 84%
AS 715 Alaska HNL 12:49 SLC 22:44 25% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest 10h 23m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 1h 32m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 8h 58m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806 2h 07m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 10h 25m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 18:35 → SLC 21:36UA 1552 10h 26m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 22:00 → SLC 00:50 +1DL 8785 8h 15m 84% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176 46m San Francisco SFO 18:35 → SLC 21:36UA 1552 8h 00m 60% 45%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267 48m Seattle SEA 20:43 → SLC 23:43AS 669 8h 40m 63% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON