tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kailua/Kona, leaving 11:34, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1994 Southwest HNL 12:10 SMF 20:19 14% 4% 0.5% no record
AS 820 Alaska Flight history → HNL 12:11 SMF 20:19 28% 6% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → HNL 09:08 → KOA 10:10AS 1068 3h 37m Kailua/Kona KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:08AS 843 10h 00m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 18:04 → SMF 19:38DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest 9h 38m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 88% 75%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:10AS 1056 3h 47m Kahului OGG 13:57 → SMF 22:03AS 960 9h 46m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → SMF 19:56UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 9h 46m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SMF 21:55UA 1862 9h 19m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806 2h 02m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 11h 22m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267 1h 58m Seattle SEA 21:53 → SMF 23:46AS 722 9h 43m 93% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON