Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2345 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2345 HOU 05:09 → MCO 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1732 HOU 15:04 → MCO 18:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2345 Southwest	HOU 05:09	MCO 08:30	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2079 Southwest	HOU 06:59	MCO 10:21	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2078 Southwest	HOU 08:45	MCO 12:06	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3075 Southwest	HOU 21:49	MCO 01:10	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4685 Southwest	HOU 13:16	MCO 16:37	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 4937 Southwest	HOU 20:29	MCO 23:50	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1732 Southwest	HOU 15:04	MCO 18:25	23%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON