Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4602 at 15:04, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4602 Southwest	HOU 15:04	RDU 18:54	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:34 → RDU 14:03DL 2026	7h 03m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	5h 42m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:22 → ATL 17:27DL 1195	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 21:59DL 3244	6h 37m	95%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 12:40 → RDU 16:27WN 1752	7h 27m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:58 → RDU 23:28DL 1154	5h 11m	89%	71%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:51 → RDU 18:47AA 1888	7h 55m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON