Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	9h 26m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 25m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	8h 42m	82%	61%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	8h 55m	100%	60%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:22 → ATL 17:27DL 1195	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 18:54 → SEA 21:03DL 714	8h 41m	85%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON