tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1155 at 15:39, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1155 Southwest HOU 15:39 VPS 17:27 18% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 5h 00m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:51 → DAL 07:04WN 1636 2h 51m Dallas DAL 09:55 → VPS 11:51WN 1481 6h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 12m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:22 → ATL 17:27DL 1195 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 6h 27m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:04DL 2170 5h 24m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → VPS 15:15AA 2501 5h 23m 95% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON