Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–53%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3136 IAH 18:48 → ORD 21:33 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	7%	4%	1.2%	97%
WN 2085 Southwest	HOU 08:54	MDW 11:21	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1444 Southwest	HOU 04:59	MDW 07:27	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	12%	5%	1.2%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	15%	6%	1.0%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	16%	6%	1.0%	89%
WN 234 Southwest	HOU 13:01	MDW 15:30	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4789 Southwest	HOU 19:49	MDW 22:18	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:06	22%	7%	1.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 43 Southwest	HOU 18:44	MDW 21:14	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	23%	9%	1.0%	86%
AA 2928 American	IAH 09:06	ORD 11:51	25%	11%	1.8%	no record
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 21:52	ORD 00:27	26%	8%	0.8%	72%
WN 2087 Southwest	HOU 15:19	MDW 17:46	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 20:41	ORD 23:31	27%	10%	0.8%	71%
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:58	ORD 14:48	32%	18%	1.2%	no record
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	35%	12%	0.8%	69%
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:53	ORD 16:41	40%	16%	0.9%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 11:31	ORD 14:01	41%	24%	2.5%	62%
AA 2416 American	IAH 18:59	ORD 21:47	42%	16%	1.7%	no record
AA 3039 American	IAH 17:29	ORD 20:19	43%	22%	1.9%	no record
UA 2786 United	IAH 17:12	ORD 19:49	44%	18%	0.8%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:31	ORD 17:13	44%	20%	1.8%	85%worse than usual
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:28	ORD 18:05	47%	20%	0.9%	no record
F9 3136 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 18:48	ORD 21:33	53%	18%	2.6%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON