Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2379 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2379 HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5013 HPN 18:49 → ATL 21:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2379 Delta Flight history →	HPN 05:52	ATL 08:23	9%	4%	1.3%	87%
DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 10:23	ATL 12:55	16%	7%	1.7%	83%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	HPN 12:47	ATL 15:20	16%	5%	1.1%	79%
9E 5076 Endeavor	HPN 16:26	ATL 19:00	26%	14%	2.3%	no record
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 18:49	ATL 21:24	29%	15%	3.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON