Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: B6 813 at 09:44 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 47%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 813 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 09:44	FLL 12:48	20%	7%	1.8%	80%
B6 613 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 21:00	FLL 23:57	47%	20%	3.0%	68%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23DL 2379	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	7h 28m	96%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 11:09 → FLL 13:21AA 1484	5h 26m	89%	70%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:23 → ATL 12:55DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	8h 17m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:47 → ATL 15:20DL 2973	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 56m	98%	65%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 07:27 → SJU 11:50B6 2601	2h 37m San Juan	SJU 14:27 → FLL 17:14B6 1454	9h 47m	99%	63%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 14:38 → FLL 16:50AA 2354	6h 50m	95%	61%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:49 → ATL 21:24DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	5h 50m	82%	59%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:34 → DTW 14:33DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037	6h 26m	88%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HPN 17:15 → DTW 19:04DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 20:02 → FLL 23:10DL 2296	5h 55m	72%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON