Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4693 at 15:24, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:24	MSP 17:21	30%	13%	2.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23DL 2379	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 38m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:23 → ATL 12:55DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 43m	92%	72%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 12:47 → MSP 14:27AA 1671	7h 32m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:49 → ATL 21:24DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	6h 50m	85%	69%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:47 → ATL 15:20DL 2973	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	6h 31m	92%	68%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 15:40 → MSP 17:35AA 2140	8h 35m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:34 → DTW 14:33DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:53 → MSP 17:44DL 2203	6h 10m	95%	62%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:15 → DTW 19:04DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 20:51 → MSP 21:46DL 8815	5h 31m	78%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	46m Charlotte	CLT 12:47 → MSP 14:27AA 1671	5h 27m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON