Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3751 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 3751 HPN 06:19 → ORD 08:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4294 HPN 17:55 → ORD 19:27 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3751 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 06:19	ORD 08:00	14%	5%	3.6%	94%
AA 3496 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 07:10	ORD 08:51	15%	6%	3.6%	89%
AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 12:00	ORD 13:38	32%	17%	6.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 3808 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 16:39	ORD 18:29	38%	19%	7.6%	72%
AA 4294 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 17:55	ORD 19:27	42%	20%	7.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON