tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: B6 1551 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1551 JetBlue Flight history → HPN 06:30 RSW 09:23 9% 3% 3.4% 95%
B6 1251 JetBlue Flight history → HPN 12:55 RSW 16:16 19% 7% 2.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23DL 2379 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 19m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → HPN 10:23 → ATL 12:55DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 21m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → HPN 12:47 → ATL 15:20DL 2973 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → RSW 19:36DL 1124 6h 49m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → RSW 13:17AA 1781 5h 22m 89% 64%
AmericanDetails → HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy 3h 31m Chicago ORD 12:22 → RSW 16:30AA 1742 9h 20m 97% 59%
AmericanDetails → HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 16:59 → RSW 19:05AA 1930 5h 22m 81% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HPN 18:59 → CLT 21:05AA 5070 · flown by PSA 47m Charlotte CLT 21:52 → RSW 23:58AA 1176 4h 59m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON