Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, B6 2601 at 07:27, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 2601 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 07:27	SJU 11:50	12%	6%	1.5%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23DL 2379	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:14 → SJU 13:58DL 1882	8h 06m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:47 → ATL 15:20DL 2973	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	9h 42m	99%	77%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 06:26 → TPA 09:32B6 1447	3h 47m Tampa	TPA 13:19 → SJU 16:34B6 1751	10h 08m	100%	70%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 08:28 → MCO 11:18B6 2695	1h 14m Orlando	MCO 12:32 → SJU 15:40B6 1133	7h 12m	92%	68%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	6h 55m	88%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	HPN 15:20 → MCO 18:11B6 595	55m Orlando	MCO 19:06 → SJU 22:16B6 433	6h 56m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON