Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 06:26, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:26	TPA 09:32	8%	4%	1.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:52 → ATL 08:23DL 2379	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 37m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:23 → ATL 12:55DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 35m	97%	71%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Washington	DCA 10:30 → TPA 13:11AA 1694	6h 41m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:47 → ATL 15:20DL 2973	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	6h 10m	98%	69%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 11:40 → TPA 13:34AA 436	5h 39m	90%	69%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 15:29 → TPA 17:26AA 545	7h 26m	97%	66%
American Details →	HPN 06:19 → ORD 08:00AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 09:09 → TPA 13:07AA 2052	6h 48m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:49 → ATL 21:24DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	5h 40m	85%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HPN 15:24 → MSP 17:21DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 02m	68%	49%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 14:45 → TPA 18:33AA 1101	6h 33m	73%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON