Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 6485 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day OO 6485 HSV 06:00 → ORD 08:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4469 HSV 13:43 → ORD 15:53 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6485 SkyWest	HSV 06:00	ORD 08:08	23%	9%	2.1%	no record
G7 4474 GoJet	HSV 07:21	ORD 09:29	24%	7%	3.4%	no record
MQ 4132 Envoy	HSV 11:06	ORD 13:23	35%	15%	3.7%	no record
UA 4469 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	HSV 13:43	ORD 15:53	38%	14%	3.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON