Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 637 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 637 IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2337 IAD 17:29 → AUS 20:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 637 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	AUS 10:56	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
UA 2746 United Flight history →	IAD 12:25	AUS 15:00	17%	7%	0.9%	82%
UA 2337 United Flight history →	IAD 17:29	AUS 20:17	22%	9%	0.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON