Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1562 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1562 IAD 08:07 → BDL 09:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 444 IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1562 United	IAD 08:07	BDL 09:37	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3610 Republic	IAD 17:22	BDL 18:55	15%	4%	1.4%	no record
YV 4029 Mesa	IAD 14:49	BDL 16:18	17%	8%	1.5%	no record
UA 444 United Flight history →	IAD 22:25	BDL 23:59	20%	5%	0.9%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON