Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1561 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1561 IAD 06:31 → DEN 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 599 IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1561 United	IAD 06:31	DEN 08:29	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1865 United Flight history →	IAD 10:13	DEN 12:05	10%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 797 United	IAD 08:08	DEN 10:03	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1587 United Flight history →	IAD 12:48	DEN 14:42	16%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 495 United Flight history →	IAD 22:50	DEN 00:41	19%	7%	0.8%	84%
UA 1126 United Flight history →	IAD 14:35	DEN 16:29	22%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 395 United Flight history →	IAD 15:56	DEN 18:03	27%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 599 United Flight history →	IAD 17:41	DEN 19:45	34%	11%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 12:43 → IND 14:29UA 3543 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Indianapolis	IND 15:32 → DEN 16:22UA 377	5h 39m	90%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON