Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4349 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 13:09	GSO 14:31	21%	5%	1.3%	81%
UA 4849 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 22:32	GSO 23:51	24%	5%	1.5%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 34m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:00 → ATL 09:56DL 3080	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:51 → GSO 15:10DL 2539	7h 10m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 15:52 → GSO 17:30DL 5512 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	100%	82%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:43 → GSO 13:20AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 06m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 09:09 → GSO 10:51DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor	4h 51m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:32 → ATL 17:26DL 2135	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → GSO 22:16DL 1617	6h 44m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:05 → ATL 19:02DL 1695	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	6h 54m	96%	74%
United Details →	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	2h 25m Newark	EWR 12:16 → GSO 14:12UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	5h 47m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON