tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 13h 43m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 15h 03m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 14h 07m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 43m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 13h 04m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → LAX 10:47UA 1734 2h 32m Los Angeles LAX 13:19 → HNL 16:23UA 1224 14h 08m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 12h 34m 96% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON