Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1323 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 09:07 → LAS 11:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4277 IAD 06:00 → LAS 08:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 09:07	LAS 11:20	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	16%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:10	LAS 20:24	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:00	LAS 08:21	24%	8%	0.7%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	6h 57m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON