Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, G7 4578 at 13:04, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G7 4578 GoJet	IAD 13:04	MDT 14:10	12%	3%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 08:00 → ATL 09:56DL 3080	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:29 → MDT 14:27DL 1354	6h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:05 → MDT 10:56DL 1248	4h 56m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857	7h 16m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:05 → ATL 19:02DL 1695	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	6h 48m	94%	76%
United Details →	IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 14:10 → MDT 17:10UA 533	6h 39m	99%	63%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → MDT 21:16UA 1719	8h 01m	96%	62%
American Details →	IAD 15:05 → DFW 17:21AA 524	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → MDT 22:59AA 2469	7h 54m	87%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON