tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 709 United Flight history → IAD 08:45 PHX 10:36 11% 4% 1.0% 99%
UA 1938 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 PHX 19:46 25% 8% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 57m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 03m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:27 → SEA 10:16DL 1015 3h 14m Seattle SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442 12h 14m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:00 → ATL 09:56DL 3080 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 18m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 27m Houston IAH 14:26 → PHX 15:30UA 1798 9h 50m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 44m 89% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 3h 43m Los Angeles LAX 19:25 → PHX 21:05UA 374 10h 55m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 47m Chicago ORD 10:23 → PHX 12:20UA 2225 7h 05m 62% 42%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 17:28 → SEA 20:01AS 737 49m Seattle SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644 9h 21m 56% 37%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 1h 08m Newark EWR 20:18 → PHX 22:25UA 2321 7h 43m 54% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON