Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4494 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day G7 4494 IAD 08:13 → PVD 09:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4521 IAD 17:22 → PVD 18:50 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4494 GoJet	IAD 08:13	PVD 09:42	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 6262 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAD 14:21	PVD 15:49	15%	7%	1.7%	87%
G7 4598 GoJet	IAD 22:08	PVD 23:37	19%	4%	2.3%	no record
G7 4521 GoJet	IAD 17:22	PVD 18:50	21%	5%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON