Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3548 IAD 08:20 → PWM 10:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YX 3538 IAD 17:25 → PWM 19:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3548 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:20	PWM 10:07	7%	2%	0.7%	97%
YX 3709 Republic	IAD 13:00	PWM 14:54	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 3459 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:05	PWM 23:57	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
YX 3538 Republic	IAD 17:25	PWM 19:18	13%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON