Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4443 IAD 08:32 → ROC 10:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4611 IAD 22:19 → ROC 23:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4443 GoJet	IAD 08:32	ROC 10:00	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 4871 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 17:29	ROC 18:50	18%	5%	1.5%	75%
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	IAD 13:38	ROC 14:47	19%	3%	1.2%	70%
G7 4611 GoJet	IAD 22:19	ROC 23:38	21%	4%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON