tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SMF 20:40 21% 6% 0.8% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:39 → LAX 18:18UA 684 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → SMF 22:55UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 10h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 9h 09m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:07 → SMF 14:00AA 2078 10h 46m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → SMF 19:56UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 10h 16m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:56 → SMF 18:54DL 743 9h 17m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 19:43 → SMF 21:40DL 682 9h 38m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 74% 63%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21UA 2276 59m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → SMF 22:55UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 07m 72% 61%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 46m Denver DEN 20:31 → SMF 22:12UA 1602 7h 31m 39% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON