Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YV 4045 IAH 21:11 → BHM 23:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 6110 IAH 18:13 → BHM 20:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4045 Mesa	IAH 21:11	BHM 23:03	15%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 4231 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 08:21	BHM 10:05	16%	3%	1.1%	88%
YV 6115 Mesa	IAH 13:51	BHM 15:47	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
YV 4076 Mesa	IAH 16:19	BHM 18:14	20%	7%	1.3%	no record
YV 6110 Mesa	IAH 18:13	BHM 20:03	21%	8%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON