Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3162 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3162 IAH 06:09 → CLT 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2364 IAH 17:48 → CLT 21:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 06:09	CLT 09:49	10%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 08:24	CLT 11:59	13%	4%	0.8%	91%
YV 6121 Mesa	IAH 07:27	CLT 11:06	16%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 1590 American	IAH 09:50	CLT 13:21	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
YV 6118 Mesa	IAH 18:36	CLT 22:02	21%	8%	2.0%	no record
F9 2396 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 07:22	CLT 10:57	26%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 2088 American	IAH 14:58	CLT 18:31	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
YV 6138 Mesa	IAH 14:01	CLT 17:04	28%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2364 American	IAH 17:48	CLT 21:19	34%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON