Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4010 IAH 21:41 → ELP 23:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 5389 IAH 12:22 → ELP 13:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4010 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 21:41	ELP 23:04	17%	6%	2.0%	82%
UA 6309 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 10:12	ELP 11:34	19%	6%	1.4%	86%
UA 6217 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 14:43	ELP 15:59	20%	7%	1.7%	89%
UA 3983 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 16:39	ELP 18:02	20%	8%	2.0%	85%
UA 4009 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 19:46	ELP 21:09	21%	8%	2.1%	80%
OO 5389 SkyWest	IAH 12:22	ELP 13:34	22%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON