tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via LAX, leaving 05:56, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 253 United Flight history → IAH 10:10 HNL 13:26 27% 8% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:09 → MSP 08:55DL 1050 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 34m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:56 → LAX 07:23UA 417 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 10h 57m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 12h 58m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 40m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 37m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 53m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 2h 59m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 12h 11m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 44m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON