tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:21, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 19:46 → JAC 21:04DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 23m Denver DEN 08:10 → JAC 10:05UA 5730 · flown by SkyWest 5h 50m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 40m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 11m Denver DEN 12:03 → JAC 13:35UA 2193 7h 15m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:56 → LAX 07:26UA 417 2h 50m Los Angeles LAX 10:16 → JAC 13:37UA 1041 8h 41m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 13:34 → JAC 16:58UA 1593 9h 38m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 47m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 6h 53m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:50 → JAC 13:00AA 1883 7h 58m 96% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON