tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1563 United Flight history → IAH 20:31 ONT 21:55 26% 7% 0.6% 79%
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history → IAH 16:13 ONT 17:51 32% 10% 0.7% 78%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 11:26 → ONT 12:25DL 1173 6h 50m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 27m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 47m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → ONT 09:51AA 1820 6h 49m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:02 → SFO 17:22UA 589 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 9h 35m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → SFO 09:25UA 1768 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 6h 52m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → ONT 12:09AA 2956 8h 07m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → ONT 22:39DL 779 10h 01m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:44 → PHX 15:40AA 2357 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 17:14 → ONT 18:41AA 1666 5h 57m 75% 53%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:59 → ATL 20:00DL 1223 59m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → ONT 22:39DL 779 7h 40m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON