Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 6148 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 6148 IAH 07:34 → RDU 11:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1742 IAH 10:03 → RDU 14:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6148 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 07:34	RDU 11:36	13%	4%	1.3%	91%
UA 2196 United Flight history →	IAH 12:03	RDU 15:55	18%	6%	0.8%	83%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	IAH 18:08	RDU 21:59	22%	7%	0.8%	77%
F9 1742 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:03	RDU 14:00	28%	9%	1.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON