Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2250 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2250 IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2198 IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2250 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SAT 08:27	12%	4%	0.9%	92%
UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:31	SAT 10:41	19%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:41	SAT 15:51	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
YV 4043 Mesa	IAH 16:27	SAT 17:37	24%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:42	SAT 19:50	27%	8%	0.8%	74%
YV 6187 Mesa	IAH 13:56	SAT 14:55	27%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	SAT 21:13	27%	7%	0.7%	77%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SAT 22:42	28%	7%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON