Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AS 241 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 241 IAH 06:03 → SEA 08:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2638 IAH 16:25 → SEA 19:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 06:03	SEA 08:33	17%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	23%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 2228 United	IAH 12:03	SEA 14:39	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	26%	7%	0.7%	77%
UA 2341 United	IAH 19:50	SEA 22:18	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	30%	7%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 14m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 09:57UA 1348	6h 42m	95%	76%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	88%	65%
American Details →	IAH 08:56 → DFW 10:08AA 3598 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:24 → SEA 13:30AA 717	6h 34m	82%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON