Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 23–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4642 IAH 12:28 → SGF 14:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4496 IAH 14:28 → SGF 16:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4642 SkyWest	IAH 12:28	SGF 14:17	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 5274 SkyWest	IAH 16:45	SGF 18:32	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 5211 SkyWest	IAH 18:52	SGF 20:54	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
G7 4496 GoJet	IAH 14:28	SGF 16:09	25%	5%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON