tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 06:02, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1155 United IAH 09:53 SMF 11:57 21% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 1148 United Flight history → IAH 20:08 SMF 22:17 23% 7% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:56 → LAX 07:26UA 417 2h 01m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SMF 11:13UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 20m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 21:18 → SMF 22:54UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 23m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 2h 24m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 7h 33m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 39m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 10m Denver DEN 12:02 → SMF 13:40UA 2673 8h 20m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229 47m Denver DEN 09:01 → SMF 10:35F9 3665 6h 05m 66% 50%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 49m Denver DEN 17:32 → SMF 19:10UA 1208 6h 10m 47% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON