tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104 5h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:59 → ATL 20:00DL 1223 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 46m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 22m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 6h 36m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057 5h 53m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:09 → CLT 09:49AA 3162 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328 6h 16m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 17:39 → MIA 21:17AA 678 1h 37m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 20m 84% 67%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 03m Chicago ORD 12:08 → SRQ 16:02UA 2287 8h 52m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 51m Atlanta ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 4h 41m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON