Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 6214 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 6214 IAH 08:05 → STL 10:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1528 IAH 20:21 → STL 22:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6214 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 08:05	STL 10:27	11%	4%	1.2%	88%
G7 4479 GoJet	IAH 18:04	STL 20:05	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 2042 United	IAH 12:55	STL 15:00	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1528 United	IAH 20:21	STL 22:46	25%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON