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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3515 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3515 ICT 07:14 → DEN 07:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5630 ICT 18:40 → DEN 19:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 3515 Southwest ICT 07:14 DEN 07:48 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 06:08 DEN 06:53 11% 6% 0.8% 92%
UA 2082 United ICT 09:42 DEN 10:44 21% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 13:35 DEN 14:20 25% 10% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
OO 5813 SkyWest ICT 11:59 DEN 12:36 25% 12% 0.7% no record
OO 5240 SkyWest ICT 17:10 DEN 17:47 31% 11% 0.9% no record
WN 4426 Southwest ICT 19:30 DEN 20:03 35% 12% 0.8% no record
UA 5630 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 18:40 DEN 19:15 36% 12% 1.1% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON