Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3478 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3478 ICT 05:57 → DFW 07:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6217 ICT 18:28 → DFW 20:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3478 Envoy	ICT 05:57	DFW 07:27	8%	4%	1.7%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 11:25	DFW 12:50	15%	4%	1.6%	83%
MQ 4032 Envoy	ICT 09:28	DFW 10:53	17%	4%	1.5%	no record
OO 6194 SkyWest	ICT 07:07	DFW 08:33	18%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 14:12	DFW 15:38	20%	5%	2.0%	91%worse than usual
OO 6236 SkyWest	ICT 19:54	DFW 21:20	26%	11%	1.3%	no record
OO 6218 SkyWest	ICT 16:51	DFW 18:17	26%	11%	1.2%	no record
OO 6217 SkyWest	ICT 18:28	DFW 20:03	28%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON