Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day C5 4248 ICT 06:29 → IAH 08:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4510 ICT 17:05 → IAH 19:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:29	IAH 08:24	14%	5%	2.4%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 10:39	IAH 12:20	15%	6%	1.4%	95%
C5 4338 CommuteAir	ICT 12:54	IAH 14:44	17%	6%	1.5%	no record
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:39	IAH 17:33	20%	9%	1.9%	no record
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:05	IAH 19:04	21%	9%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON