tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2152 at 13:07, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2152 Southwest ICT 13:07 LAS 13:50 21% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 59m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 41m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Denver DEN 18:08 → LAS 19:11UA 2424 7h 36m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ICT 15:07 → SEA 16:50AS 2117 · flown by Horizon 3h 31m Seattle SEA 20:21 → LAS 22:47AS 768 9h 40m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:39 → IAH 12:20UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 00m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 6h 58m 85% 64%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 786 1h 42m Chicago ORD 11:12 → LAS 13:16UA 1803 7h 56m 93% 64%
AmericanDetails → ICT 14:12 → DFW 15:38AA 3479 · flown by Envoy 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → LAS 19:36AA 1771 7h 24m 100% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:45 → MSP 17:35DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 54m Minneapolis MSP 18:29 → LAS 19:47DL 2246 6h 02m 64% 47%
AmericanDetails → ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376 5h 03m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON