Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4043 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 06:45 → ORD 08:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ICT 17:55 → ORD 19:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:45	ORD 08:45	17%	6%	3.3%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:20	ORD 09:30	19%	8%	1.7%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	29%	19%	4.5%	80%
G7 4558 GoJet	ICT 18:22	ORD 20:30	32%	13%	4.2%	no record
AA 6283 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:48	ORD 15:59	36%	21%	4.3%	76%worse than usual
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:52	ORD 16:58	36%	20%	3.7%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 17:55	ORD 19:58	39%	18%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON