tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 15:07, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → ICT 15:07 SEA 16:50 17% 7% 1.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629 9h 43m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 54m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:01 → SEA 09:57UA 1348 5h 49m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 09m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 786 4h 00m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 10h 49m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → ICT 06:45 → ORD 08:45AA 4043 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Chicago ORD 11:35 → SEA 14:03AA 1476 9h 18m 93% 60%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 6h 24m 90% 59%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:45 → MSP 17:35DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 7h 03m 80% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON