Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6466 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 06:33	DFW 10:20	18%	8%	1.8%	91%
OO 4972 SkyWest	IDA 13:49	DFW 17:46	28%	11%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	2h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	IDA 13:10 → SLC 14:33DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 13m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	IDA 13:50 → SEA 14:44AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:45AS 542	8h 55m	99%	69%
Alaska Details →	IDA 06:09 → SEA 07:02AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 08:39 → DFW 14:28AS 321	7h 19m	100%	69%
United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Denver	DEN 15:41 → DFW 18:44UA 2230	7h 09m	96%	66%
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 45m	95%	62%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	1h 17m Denver	DEN 17:35 → DFW 20:34UA 1565	5h 04m	78%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	47m Denver	DEN 09:42 → DFW 12:51UA 1350	4h 51m	74%	61%
United Details →	IDA 17:54 → DEN 19:45UA 5551 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	5h 05m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON