tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5009 SkyWest IDA 14:00 ORD 18:22 41% 23% 3.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → IDA 13:50 → SEA 14:44AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 09m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:10 → SLC 14:33DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 7h 19m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 95% 64%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 06:09 → SEA 07:02AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Seattle SEA 09:06 → ORD 15:01AS 265 7h 52m 100% 60%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 7h 19m 89% 58%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:55UA 377 6h 41m 91% 58%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Denver DEN 15:53 → ORD 19:27UA 675 7h 52m 96% 56%
AmericanDetails → IDA 06:33 → DFW 10:20AA 6466 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → ORD 15:22AA 1618 7h 49m 93% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 00m 71% 56%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 5h 35m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON